Spurts and Lags as Brazil Fell Behind Before 1913: a Puzzle in the Great Divergence

Abstract

After its abolition of slavery in 1864-5 at the end of its civil war, the US GDP per capita began to grow at a stable high rate of 1.7% per annum. Furtado (1963) Brazil to have grown substantially from 1850 to 1950 at 1.5% as slavery was phased out over the period to 1888. At least three subsequent primary sources found Brazil’s late 19^th century to be a phase of secular stagnation if not decline. By 2007, Furtado (1963) went through 34 editions with only minor revisions. Its view that abolition and the switch from sugar to coffee led to a growth surge, became the dominant paradigm in economic history courses in Brazilian universities. This study examines critically the Brazil-US GDPpc data for 1800-1913, and suggests new research with direct, quantitative, single-year comparisons.